Kerala Voting Pattern - Political shift and no Minority Consolidation!

Kerala's population - 3.45 crores
Electoral Population - ~2.61 crores
Christians + Muslims - 45% of population
Keeping same rate in electoral population their count would be - 1.17 crores

Voting percentage - 77.68%
Count - 2.03 crores (71%)

There is no data available to show religion-wise voting pattern.

Vote share for UDF increased over 2014 by 5.17% which means in actual terms it went up by 13.50 lac. LDF lost almost the same quantum i.e 5.03% . If the 13.5 lac came from Muslims and Christians alone there is a jump of 11. 54% there (if Hindu votes remained unchanged). This is very unlikely.

According to claims made by LDF, they have an equal base among all communities. In general, the belief is that the LDF voter is more loyal and stays with them in any circumstances.

Considering that there was an increase of 3.74% in voting over 2014 this time, there are many possibilities, but a minority consolidation does not seem logical at all.

The highest polling came in seats like Kannur and Vadakara along with Kasargod and Wyanad. Who would say that there is a religious voting pattern in any of these constituencies. These are highly political constituencies and have had the record of voting politically since elections started in Kerala. Wyanad could be considered as sentimental voting for a PM candidate (as it was propagated and seemingly perceived, then)

If the consolidation argument has to sell, it should have resulted in a surge in Thiruvananthapuram, Pathanamthitta or Thrissur. It was not the case. Thiruvananthapuram saw the lowest turnout.

The margin of victory across seats also suggests something else.

1) There has been a marked shift in the 'neutral voter', very very low in Kerala though.

2)There has been an erosion in the core base of the LDF.

The second seems more logical. We also need to see the fact that NDA, majorly BJP has also increased its vote share. Where are these votes coming from, the congress/UDF camp? Minorities? That is laughable.

Vote from LDF has gone to both UDF and NDA, and this can't be labelled and mocked as majority or minority consolidation. I see this a clear Political Mandate against the Left. Nothing else can result in a loss in Palakkad, Attingal and Vadakara especially.

Flood and associated factors, Sabarimala, General attitude of the CM and ministers have all been reflected in the voting pattern. 

On Sabarimala, one has to infer that the common voter in Kerala has voted decisively against both the extremes. On one end there was the BJP (Not NDA) seeing this as a 'Golden Opportunity' to communalise the discourse the their candidates did that as well, and on the other end was the Government led by CPM which staged a 'midnight coup' (As seen by the common man) to ensure women entry into the shrine. The religious sentiments of the state is different from many other places in India. People have a sentimental attachment to their religion, but are very considerate about fellow religions as well. So the common Christian and Muslim was also 'hurt' with what was happening to their neighbor. That reflected in the voting. Here, the important fact is not what is actually right and what will propel our society forward; but it is about how it is perceived by the common man.

Another major reason for a verdict against the LDF was the Periya Double Murder of Kripesh and Sarath Lal, where local CPM Leaders were involved, which happened very close to the elections. This, followed by the candidature of P Jayarajan in Vadakara constituency, raked up lot of discussion around the 'Politics of Murder' where CPM is at the wrong end more often that not. This had a lot of impact on the outcome in Vadakara in particular, but across the state as well.

There were many other constituency level issues that influenced the voters. I am not getting into that, but am focusing at reasons stated above, that had an impact in more than one constituency. 

The authoritarian attitude of the Chief Minister and many of his party men is generally not something 'Keraleeyan' enjoys. Pro Modi and Anti Modi vote, could be an additional consideration which pushed most of the votes that changed sides to UDF and not NDA. The mandate was against LDF, at the same time there was a mandate in favor of UDF as well;  otherwise NDA would have stayed still.

The voter in Kerala is well informed and politically opinionated and is not driven by religious sentiments in general. A point to note that there is a change in this pattern that has slowly started emerging and that will weaken the LDF as we have seen in West Bengal and Tripura.

The left has a lot to ponder and the UDF also needs to work more to keep BJP and NDA at check.